The Way of It, Part Two: A Series of Fictitious Conversations Demonstrating the Evolution of Football Strategy

San Francisco, 1979.

Across the bay from Oakland, two men watch from the sidelines as players in red-and-gold practice uniforms charge around the field. 

"You want the coaching job?” Eddie DeBartolo demands. “Sure you do.”

“I do,” Bill Walsh agrees.

"You know I inherited a mess from the old owner. My 49ers are the joke of the NFL,” says DeBartolo. His thick, heavy brows descend over his eyes. “You know why?”

There is a pause. Walsh watches the linemen re-enact blocking formations again and again. Their efforts are audible from the sidelines.  “It’s not a lack of effort,” he says.  “Or a lack of ability.”

“Yeah, not for the players, but I need a coach with the ability to spot match-ups. Madden’s strategy just won the Super Bowl for the second time. Now he is an announcer for crying out loud.” DeBartolo’s frustration is obvious as he runs his hand across his dark hair, which immediately springs back up again. “Match-ups! It’s all the rage now. We stink at finding match-ups. Whaddaya got, Walsh?"

Bill Walsh’s hair is as white as DeBartolo’s is dark. "The way I see it," Walsh replies, "The real match-up is between me and the other coach. I’ll keep track of what the other coaches do in different situations. Based on his tendencies from past games I can predict his moves in his game against me. Then can I design plays that take advantage of the most frequent tendencies of the opposing coach in those situations."

A wide receiver leaps up in an attempt to snatch the ball out of the air but he has mistimed his jump and the football sails between his hands.

"Convince me,” says Bartolo.

“We’ll need to hire some people to work on keeping track of every play that other coaches run in different situations. For example, I’ve noticed that coaches tend to revert to the same plays over and over again when they’re close to scoring. If you know what they tend to do, you can run a defensive play that will take advantage of whatever they usually do in that situation. the individual match-ups won’t matter as much because you’re concentrating on the bigger picture, you see?”

Eddie DeBartolo is beginning to look convinced. “You’d need to sort through a lot of situations to make that work, though.”

“Oh, yeah. First down on the twenty-yard line; first down on the goal line; second down and short to go on the goal line; second down and long to go.” But Walsh is far from discouraged. He watches the 49ers players but his mind is absorbed by his idea for how to give them an overall advantage. “We’ll keep track of other coaches’ tendencies in all the situations we can think of. Then I’ll divide the areas of the football field into zones, because their location on the field affects their decisions too. For example, what I call the 'Red Zone' is the twenty yards closest to the goal line. We compile the data across the NFL as a continuous trend and give more weight to recent games.”

“That… is going to take… forever.” DeBartolo shakes his head. “Just how the hell are we going to keep track of all those numbers in all those situations for all those zones, and for all the different teams?”

“Computers!” Walsh replies happily. “Those new gadgets can track all that stuff for us. With that information, I can beat anybody."

"Okay, you’ve got the job. So what kind of quarterback do you want? You want someone who can throw deep? I can get you somebody who can throw deep."

Walsh shakes his head. "No. I want someone who will follow my statistical advice. There’s a kid named Joe Montana who suits my plan…"

******

“The Way of It” sets up the evolution of thought in football. For a long time it was a game of systems or formation, which Madden called a ‘gimmick’ and which he claimed was only the surface of the real, ‘deeper’ game. Thus Madden came up with a new strategy, creating a game of individual match-ups. 

Walsh came along and expanded the picture to include overall tendencies of different teams, so instead of simply looking at this player-by-player and game-by-game, he viewed the statistics as ongoing trends and made plays accordingly. No one else had begun to think like Walsh yet, however, so his 49ers had a huge advantage in the NFL. For a while, it was as if he had caught a glimpse of another dimension that other teams could not see.

According to our fictitious Walsh, Joe Montana suited his plans because Walsh wanted to run what he called "percentage plays." These are plays that have the highest chance of gaining five yards or more with the least risk. Walsh did not need to risk everything on a forty-yard pass if five yards was a sure thing according to the statistics. He needed someone willing to be patient. At the time, most quarterbacks were not patient enough for that (and many still aren't) because there was (and still is) a long-standing snobbery in the NFL about what a quarterback "should" do. This mindset dictates that a brainy, talented quarterback should stand out by throwing long passes.

Walsh did not need or want that for his new iteration of the 49ers. He needed somebody who did not want to be a flashy quarterback as much as he wanted to win games. Joe Montana was happy to complete a lot of short passes and his patience was rewarded with the Super Bowl.

Next we will have a "conversation" with Pete Carroll and see how the Seahawks come into this discussion.

___

"The Way of It" is a collaborative effort between Ada Fetters and Michael Howard.

Seahawks vs Cowboys - "Did anyone catch that play...?"

There were a lot of “WTF” moments in this Seahawks-Cowboys game, including a bizarre strolling touchdown call by Hill (correctly overturned), denying the Seahawks an interception (less correctly), Pete Carroll somehow getting away with having twelve men on the field, dubious first down calls, first down denials and more, causing puzzlement and irritation for both teams.

It makes a person wonder, it really does.

But at the end of the day, the score was 13 – 12, Seahawks.

Dez Bryant, the Cowboys wide receiver, had recovered from an injured foot and was back in the game. Not that it did the Cowboys all that much good. Richard Sherman played match up against Bryant instead of his usual zone defense and it certainly did pay off for the Seahawks. Sherman broke up play after play until Cassel quit throwing at him. After Sherman closed down a would-have-been touchdown from the Cowboys, the camera showed his trademark high-intensity glare into space until one of his teammates arrived to celebrate. Sherman can afford to talk a big game because he can back up every statement he makes.

While our outspoken cornerback did cost the Seahawks a significant return by Tyler Lockett with a holding penalty, it is OsQ’s opinion that Sherm’s performance against Dez Bryant more than made up for that. In fact, most corners would have had to hold several times and would have allowed myriad passes in a matchup against Bryant.

Our Ricardo Lockette was hit by Jeff Heath and fell like a rag doll. His eerily still, prone form was immediately circled by his teammates, who must have been relieved to find that it was not a spinal cord injury. 

Poor Jeff Heath looked sick as he watched the medics check out Lockette. The referees called it a blindside but honestly, I did not see a dirty hit. Heath was trying to put his shoulder down, the way he was supposed to do. Lockette was trying to put his head down, the way he was supposed to do. That is, he saw the hit coming and prepared for it, so it was not a blindside. The two guys were just the wrong height, angle and speed for Lockette to take a bad hit to the head.

In happier news, Russell Wilson took a few hits but he did not get sacked during this game, thanks to a much-improved offensive line. It is true that the offense was held to one touchdown and field goals. However, Russell Wilson mounted drives when it counted. Fans should be pleased to note that he spread the ball around, making use of Baldwin, Kearse, Luke Willson and Graham. This kind of versatility is one of the Seahawks’ best weapons as a team that relies on unpredictability and accumulated experience of working with one another. The more various things they are able to do, the longer they can keep the other team guessing and the more they can take advantage of other teams' weaknesses.

Wilson also took the read option several times for big first downs when the Cowboys took the bait and swarmed toward Marshawn Lynch.

In even happier news than that, the Hawks defense was ferocious. They were able to hang onto the lead given to them instead of crumbling in the fourth quarter, which has been their Achilles heel so far this season. In the last Cowboys drive with one minute on the clock and the Seahawks leading by just one point thanks to a late-game field goal, the combined efforts of the defense knocked Cassel back to fourth down and 21 yards… well out of field goal range.

The Good News:

The Seahawks have fought their way to 4 – 4, with two back-to-back road victories.

The Bad News:

Ricardo Lockette’s injury, obviously. The 12s are collectively hoping his concussion looked worse than it was. (update: according to Pete Carroll, doctors say Lockette did not suffer a concussion after all but they are still doing tests).

The Question:

Can the Seahawks keep their momentum to defeat the Arizona Cardinals, who currently lead their division?

The Way of It, Part One: A Series of Fictitious Conversations Demonstrating the Evolution of Football Strategy

Oakland, 1969. 

Two men sit opposite one another in a West Coast burger joint not far from the ocean. The first is a small, well-tanned man whose shock of black hair is slicked back with oil. California sunlight flashes off his silver-rimmed sunglasses. When he takes them off there are wrinkles under his eyes.

The second man has the look of an ex-football-player who still eats as if he was playing. The tone of their well-worn jokes lets any observer know that they are old friends.

The smaller man, Al Davis, gets down to business. "I’m getting too old to handle being coach and team owner. But the real thing is, the coaching game is starting to get away from me. John, I asked you here because I want you to coach the Raiders for me." 

John Madden shakes his head in disbelief. "I just don't get what you mean about the game getting away from you. The Raiders are doing good. You’ve got tough guys that play hard. You’ve got a winning record. Dunno what’s the matter with that, Al."

"The way I coach the game is getting old fast. New ideas are taking over. My idea of attracting renegades and rejects and playing tough football isn't enough anymore.  Have you seen what Miami is doing with that new defense?"

"Okay, yeah,” Madden agrees reluctantly. “They’re doing good with the new zone defense."

"They’re doing good now. They’re set up to do even better. I need to find a coach who can come up with something new before we slump. A new formation would be good." Davis tosses his sunglasses on the table and gives a little shrug. "That’s why I needed to talk to you, John. Whatever the Raiders need to do, it’s beyond me."

"Naw, I don't have anything for you there. Besides, a new fad isn’t really what you want. At the end of the day these new formations are just indirect ways to use strengths and hide weaknesses. What you really want is to beat ‘em to the punch. You want to figure a way to use your strengths and exploit opponent's weaknesses."

Davis makes his reply, trying not to let his disappointment show in his voice. He tries to recall the next guy in line for the Raiders head coaching job.

Madden does not hear it. He has warmed to his subject. "See, what nobody knows is that football isn’t really about these big schemes and the latest fad formation. Those are just tools to indirectly get to the good stuff. I am going straight to the good stuff!"

"Um.”

"Sure!” Madden, always enthusiastic, becomes boisterous. “I figured this out a few years ago when I was playing defensive tackle. We were winning but the guy I was playing against got the better of me on every play. Our team kept scoring but that guy would win our personal battle. BOOM, he knocked me down. Next play, WHAP, down I went.” The silverware on the table rattles as Madden’s meaty hands strike the surface. “But you know what? None of those plays took advantage of him being better than I was, so it didn't matter."

 “So you weren't a good lineman. Terrific."

Madden laughs the way he always does when his friend barks at him. "Maybe! But I also realized that coaches don't know what they are doing. They are approaching football like a philosophy class, as if their system is the end product. I thought about it a lot. Here’s what I came up with. Football is a game of match-ups! One guy against another guy! A coach who knows how to take advantage of that simple fact would win the game. The trick is to isolate the players and focus the outcome of a game on a favorable match-up. I’d like to bypass the gimmicks and concentrate on finding and working the match-ups."

Madden’s enthusiasm is infectious. Davis begins to smile. "I get it. You look for mismatches and play them for all they’re worth."

"Yeah! For an upcoming game I’d look for my guy who can BOOM the other guy, then I’d design plays to make sure that the outcome of the game hinges on that match-up. As long as I had even one guy on my team who could beat his opposing player, I could win by using formations, concepts and schemes to focus the game on that one weak spot. Theoretically, every game could be won."

By this time Madden has won Davis over. Davis extends his well-tanned arm across the table and shakes hands with his friend. "Just win, baby!"

"That's it. Just win!"

******

Per our fictitious Madden's observation, there was a deeply entrenched philosophical mindset prevalent in football at the time. It took a long time for other coaches to catch on to his match-up strategy. Once they knew what he was doing, the effect might be mitigated because a coach could swap out a mismatched guy for someone who was good in a different way, or try to switch their own strategy. If that coach knew the Madden-style team would go for the mismatched guy and commit to that, that coach could use it to his advantage.

E.g. you have a weak cornerback against a great receiver and you know they other team will commit to that mismatched pass. Thus you’d go for an all-out blitz. Make sure that the other team’s quarterback, who really wants the time to set up a pass that is statistically a sure thing, gets knocked into the ground before he can take advantage of the mismatch.

However, at the time no one else had begun to consider this, so Madden’s strategy dominated the NFL.

Madden's drafting style also reflected his new strategy. He looked at college players and rated them on weakness and strength. That was what counted in the mismatch system. He went for the highest-rated guy, figuring he could trade the guy later if he needed a position filled. He was not looking for people who could 'fit' each other or 'fit' a system. They were basically interchangeable parts.

That might sound mechanical but it is practical and not only that, it won the Superbowl.

This also goes a long way toward explaining the "Madden Football" games. John Madden could give players a numerical rating and so it was relatively easy to translate that into zeros and ones for a video game.

Thus we begin our “The Way of It” series with the shift to match-ups. Next in the series will be a similar “conversation” with Bill Walsh.

___

"The Way of It" is a collaborative effort between Ada Fetters and Michael Howard.

Seahawks vs 49ers - zone defense and Lynch's authority

By now you've probably heard that the Hawks won over the 49ers 20 - 3. Before the game, Pete Carroll said that his players were eager to get back on the field and prove themselves after the loss to the Panthers last week. 

Referees appeared to overlook a few holds that kept our defensive from getting into place and turned a blind eye to the 49ers roughhousing our players. However, they typically held the Seahawks to more exacting standards both with penalties and first-down rulings. 

This was not a bad thing. For years I have watched the Seahawks deal with questionable (or just irritating) penalties by renewing their efforts tenfold on the next play. Far from discouraging them, they seem to feed off of it. They do best when feel like they are out to get some respect. 

It should absolutely be said, though, that the referees did not ignore 49ers player Antoine Bethea twisting Doug Baldwin's helmet halfway around. The refs gave the 49ers an appropriate 15 yard penalty.

I was encouraged when I heard the players saying things like "We had so much fun," and "we were flying around." This sounds more like the regular mode of operation for the Swirling Zone Defense of Doom. Earl Thomas reported that the defense told Sherman to just go do his thing in his zone and make Kaepernick second-guess himself. That might not sound important, but it required Sherman to trust that the others would cover wherever he did not. 

To his credit, Colin Kaepernick has learned some things. 

He cut down his attempts to throw at Sherman, with the result that Sherman did not intercept the ball. However, in my opinion that caution contributed to Kaepernick's inability to mount offensive drives. He hesitated long enough on pass-plays to get sacked six times. Certainly Wright, Mebane and Bennett deserve praise for getting there to make the sacks but Sherman's roaming presence was an invisible factor that helped to shush Kap's pass game.

The defense kept the lead that Wilson and his offense gave them. Wilson connected with Graham, made some big passes to Baldwin and Kearse, then threw a beautiful 43 yarder to Tyler Lockett for a touchdown. 

You might hear that Wilson "didn't slide right" on one of his read option plays. At any rate, Simms the announcer remarked that "You'd think a former baseball player would know how to slide better." Wilson's ability to slide was not the problem in this particular case. The turf in Levi's Stadium has issues. It was a story before the game, even before this year. Game footage clearly showed Wilson's shoe sticking in the mushy turf, which rolled his slide.  I mention it because at this point the turf is unsafe for players and could easily have turned into an injury for our nimble quarterback. 

The rookie running back Thomas Rawls seemed impatient with his blockers. He often rushed forward too soon. The kid is still young. He'll learn. Beast Mode is not just about charging forward as soon as possible. Beast Mode is also about timing. That aspect of it is subtle, but we saw it show up tonight, as Lynch struck an excellent balance between keeping forward momentum and watching for space to open up on the field.

Marshawn Lynch reminded San Francisco to respect his authority. He rushed for 100+ yards. On the sidelines he followed his typical routine of gazing toward the horizon with a serene if somewhat spacey smile. Then he went back out and pounded the ball past a wall of defenders. He even went past their defensive line for a touchdown. Unlike Rawls, he hung back just long enough for their defensive linemen to fall in a heap of our offensive linemen, then Lynch flung himself over everyone to hit the end zone. 

Lynch terrified the defense so badly that they swarmed to him en masse if he was on the field. Even the 49ers defensive end was drawn in, allowing Wilson to pick up an important first down. 

This was an interesting game for many reasons. The Seahawks always try to play "one game at a time" but I do hope this week's lessons in defensive playing carry over to next week. This was a big step in the right direction.

The Good News:

The Seahawks won an important NFC West game and seemed to be playing for one another and trusting each other in zone defense.

The Bad News:

As much fun as it is to watch Russell Wilson "make something out of nothing," even Wilson cannot escape each and every time the offensive line washes away like a sand castle at high tide. He freely owned up to two interceptions, as he should. However, if he is routinely forced to rush then his chance of an interception will rise. 

The Question:

Can the offensive line protect our quarterback consistently? Or will Russell Wilson be forced into becoming more intimate with various kinds of turf? 

Five Reasons Why Russell Wilson is the Most Useful Quarterback for the Zombie Apocalypse

Russell Wilson may not be a great pick in fantasy football, but he certainly has OsQ's vote for "Most Useful Quarterback for the Zombie Apocalypse." Here are five reasons why. 

1. It is highly unlikely that Russell Wilson would leave you behind to get eaten by zombies just because it'd make life easier for him in the moment.  This is first and foremost. You won't survive for long if someone like Tom Brady abandons you to the zombies.

2.  Wilson is used to being surrounded by a crowd that wants to clobber him and is mobile enough to escape being grabbed more often than traditional pocket-passers such as Eli Manning or Aaron Rodgers. This would be useful when dealing with zombies.

3. No one is saying that other QBs in the NFL lack athleticism. Colin Kaepernick, for one, is athletic. However, Wilson isn't just strong and quick, he is also light and small. He would be able to escape through windows and over precarious roofs or ledges that Kaepernick would not be able to navigate.

4.  Wilson has a good instinct for self-preservation. He will stay on the field as long as he can, but knows when to head out of bounds. In a football game it is sad when RG3 can't protect himself. In a zombie apocalypse others would have to take risks to get him out of bad situations that could have been avoided with a little caution. Risk-taking behavior can easily compound into a trap for the whole party.

5. If things are going badly, you would never know it by looking at Wilson. When Cam Newton makes pouty faces it does not improve the morale of those around him, whether in a football game or a zombie apocalypse.  Wilson is able to stay focused in the face of the awkward or unexpected and maintain a sleepy-eyed poker face. 

Seahawks vs Panthers - catch-up and predictions

There is a reason why Pete Carroll tells his players to “finish at the end of the fourth quarter, not at the end of the third.” For the second time in a row the Seahawks gave up a significant lead in the second half.

I am optimistic about Russell Wilson and the offense. The offensive line is getting back into some kind of shape. We did not have to watch nearly 300 pounds of defensive player collide with our quarterback who barely tips the scale over 200 pounds. Not only is the offensive line shaping up, but the Wilson-to-Graham connection began to click during important plays.

Graham has been a double-edged sword so far this season. In order to bring him to the team the Seahawks traded away a key offensive lineman with the result that the offensive line lacked communication early this season. This led to the cringe-inducing sacks and the knowledge that if Russell Wilson were a less mobile QB he would have spent more time hitting the turf than making plays.

The linemen hardly ever get any credit, but they are key to the offense. Without them, you take away the versatility of one of the NFL’s most versatile quarterbacks, limiting his arsenal and cutting his effectiveness in half.

The thing is that one of the reasons why Graham has been so effective in the past is that he has a unique and unexpected playing style. He rarely looks to observers like he is ready to receive the ball. At the very last second he boxes out the defensive players and twists his body to catch the ball. Thus throwing to him requires a lot of trust. A cautious quarterback who is not used to playing with Graham might not want to throw to him. I believe that is the issue we saw in the early games this season.

However, during the Panthers game a pressured and scrambling Wilson saw Graham as his only hope and completed a big pass. After this, we saw him utilize Graham more and more often. If I know Wilson and Carroll, they will shape this into a new weapon. I look forward to watching this evolve.

Yes, the offense still has wrinkles to iron out but at this point they are not the problem. Even with all the drama they are reliably giving the Hawks a two-possession lead at the half (and when they start really clicking together, I predict they will become truly formidable). So, what, are the Seahawks defensive players not trying hard enough? No. Earl Thomas had an excellent game. Kam Chancellor did a great job. Richard Sherman is always a joy to watch.

Is there a weak part of the ‘fence? I am tempted to place at least part of the blame for recent losses on #26, Williams. Last week against the Bengals, Williams not only gave up multiple passes but also gave the Seahawks holding penalties that they could not afford. This week against the Panthers, Williams charged into a potential interception engineered by the dynamic Sherman/Thomas duo and bounced the ball away from Thomas’s waiting hands. If facial expressions are anything to go by, neither Earl Thomas nor Richard Sherman were amused.

However, the problem is deeper and more complicated than one errant cornerback. There are two big issues.

Firstly, I saw many people playing well as individuals on the field today, but that is not good enough for Pete Carroll’s version of the Seahawks. They have to find a way to play for each other and trust one another to perform their job in their zone instead of charging around where they aren’t supposed to be, potentially leaving big gaps in the defense.

Secondly, we have a new defensive coordinator. I am not saying Kris Richard isn’t a talented guy. However, the Seahawks' coaching staff don't just bark orders according to statistics, they interact with people. A new coach can be a significant issue for a team that does rely so much on personal connections and trust. Until they start to communicate, the defensive end-game will be thrown off. This element is difficult for most fans to see directly but we can certainly see the results like the smoke from an unseen fire. Time and practice will improve the late-game defensive strategy.

That said, let’s look briefly at the bigger picture.

The Good News:

Arizona lost their game against ‘Frisco. The Cardinals were leading the NFC West so even now, Seattle is not in a terrible position for the Playoffs.

The Bad News:

Over the last three years the Seahawks have made a lot of enemies. The Rams, the Panthers, the 49ers, the Packers, they’re all out for revenge. We play the 49ers this week and it will be an important game for all concerned. We need to sort out the defense sooner rather than later against a strangely invigorated Colin Kaepernick.

The Question:

Can the Seahawks come together as a team and start playing for each other? Or will frustration with these early losses fragment the team into disillusioned individuals?